Forex Forecast: 28 June – 2 July 2021
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to buy at or below 1.2085, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1950, and Short it at or above 1.21, with a Stop loss at 1.2215.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1970 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.1847 low, set this past Monday. Hence and thought this week there were not many opportunities for Short or Long traders. The first trading opportunity came this past Tuesday, to go Long on the currency pair at 1.1950, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1952, for 0.02% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1950, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1968, for 0.15% profit.
The main driver of the pair’s price action has come from investors’ appetite for riskier assets as of late, as the effects of the Fed’s message from the latest meeting have been dying off.
In addition, yields of the German 10-year benchmark keep the upside pressure intact, adding to the upbeat mood around the European currency vs. the steady performance of the US bonds market.
Fundamentals in the region also sustain the bid bias in the pair. This time, the German IFO survey showed the Business Climate improved further in June, surpassing expectations at the same time and showing morale remains high and supporting the ongoing economic recovery.
EURUSD advances towards 1.1950 amid cautious optimism, as the US dollar holds steady amid Fed rate hike talks and US stimulus progress. German IFO Business Climate Index beats estimates with 101.8 in June. US data dump in focus.
EURUSD navigates in a choppy fashion so far this week, always in the upper bound of the recent range and above the 1.1900 mark following Monday’s sharp bounce off the mid-1.1800s.
Regarding technicals, and although the pair left the oversold territory, it remains close to it as per the daily RSI levels. On its way up, EURUSD expects to meet a minor resistance at a Fibo retracement at 1.1976 ahead of the more significant barrier at the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1993. Further north comes in the psychological yardstick at 1.20 the figure. Above the 200-day SMA, the selling pressure is expected to alleviate somewhat.
For next week, The market moved and closed above 1.1900 yesterday and is trading above 1.19 today, Thursday. Hence, I expect to see 1.1980, and if the market continues and rally above 1.2000, we can expect to see a 12060. Hence and as illustrated in the following chart, our technical analysis suggest to go Long on the EURUSD at or below 1.19453, setting a stop loss at 1.1875, and to Short it at or above 1.20612, setting a stop loss at 1.21.
As of 11:44 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.19448.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 25: exchange rate 1.1918 Dollars, maximum 1.2097, minimum 1.1739. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 28: exchange rate 1.1942 Dollars, maximum 1.2121, minimum 1.1763. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 29: exchange rate 1.1999 Dollars, maximum 1.2179, minimum 1.1819. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 30: exchange rate 1.1954 Dollars, maximum 1.2133, minimum 1.1775.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, July, 1: exchange rate 1.1843 Dollars, maximum 1.2021, minimum 1.1665. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, July, 2: exchange rate 1.1736 Dollars, maximum 1.1912, minimum 1.1560. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 5: exchange rate 1.1742 Dollars, maximum 1.1918, minimum 1.1566. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 6: exchange rate 1.1760 Dollars, maximum 1.1936, minimum 1.1584. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 7: exchange rate 1.1690 Dollars, maximum 1.1865, minimum 1.1515.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
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