Forex Forecast: 28/09 – 02/10/2020

Forex Forecast: 28/09 - 02/10/2020

How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement


EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go long at or below 1.17985, and to short it at or above 1.18426, setting a stop loss at 1.19. Hence, we had an opportunity to go short this past Monday at 1.1873, closing the short position today, Thursday at 1.16790, locking in a profit of 2.09%,


Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair has extended its weekly decline to 1.1626, a fresh two-month low, and trades nearby ahead of the US opening. The American currency advances for a fourth consecutive day amid demand for safety, amid fears related to slowing growth within the current pandemic context.


A worse-than-expected IFO report added pressure on the shared currency. The German survey showed that the Business Climate in the country improved in September to 93.4, missing expectations of 93.8.


The US has just published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 18, which came in at 870K worse than the 843K expected and the previous 866K. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended September 11 increased to 12.58M. Later today, US Federal Reserve Chief’s Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will testify before a Senate special commission.



Technical Analysis

EURUSD reaches daily highs as dollar’s demand receded. The EURUSD is up to the 1.1675 price zone, as demand for the greenback eased following disappointing US employment-related data. Stocks bouncing off intraday lows putting some pressure on the American currency.


Forex Forecast: 28/09 - 02/10/2020


As said, the EURUSD pair is trading near its daily low, bearish, according to intraday technical readings.


The 20 SMA heads lower almost vertically, currently at around 1.1715, while the larger ones grind lower well above it. The Momentum indicator resumed its decline within negative levels, while the RSI consolidates around 30, all of which favours a lower low during the upcoming session.


Support levels are at 1.1620, 1.1580, and 1.1535, while Resistance levels are at 1.1670, 1.1715, and 1.1750.


For next week and as shown in the following EURUSD chart, our technical indicators suggest to go long at or below 1.16760, as the harmonic pattern ABCD gets completed.  In my humble opinion, I do not believe the USD has the strength to push the EUR below 1.1650, unless a major development.


Forex Forecast: 28/09 - 02/10/2020


on the USD would come to the market (positive Economic news). Otherwise, we just have to wait for this harmonic pattern confirmation, before getting long on the currency pair.

As of 7:28 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.16740.


Forex Forecast: 28/09 - 02/10/2020


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 25: exchange rate 1.1647 Dollars, maximum 1.1822, minimum 1.1472. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 28: exchange rate 1.1625 Dollars, maximum 1.1799, minimum 1.1451. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 29: exchange rate 1.1588 Dollars, maximum 1.1762, minimum 1.1414. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 30: exchange rate 1.1466 Dollars, maximum 1.1638, minimum 1.1294.


Forex Forecast: 28/09 - 02/10/2020



In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, October, 1: exchange rate 1.1508 Dollars, maximum 1.1681, minimum 1.1335. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, October, 2: exchange rate 1.1497 Dollars, maximum 1.1669, minimum 1.1325. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, October, 5: exchange rate 1.1477 Dollars, maximum 1.1649, minimum 1.1305. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, October, 6: exchange rate 1.1464 Dollars, maximum 1.1636, minimum 1.1292. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, October, 7: exchange rate 1.1493 Dollars, maximum 1.1665, minimum 1.1321.


Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.