Forex Forecast: 25 – 29 October 2021
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1620, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1460, and Short it at or above 1.1740, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1860.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1670 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.1571 low, set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1573, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1622, for 0.42% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1606, selling it at 1.1668, for 0.53% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1614, selling it at 1.1657, for an extra 0.37% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.1630, selling it at 1.1665, for an extra 0.3% ROI.
US government bond yields retain control of financial markets, pushing the dollar higher when appreciating and lower when giving up ground. The EURUSD pair peaked for the day at 1.1666 during Asian trading hours, then pulled back towards the 1.1640 price zone, ahead of US macroeconomic data. At the time being, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stands at 1.66%, after peaking at a fresh multi-month high of 1.682%.
The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 15, which resulted in 290K, improving from 296K in the previous week and beating expectations. The October Philadelphia Fed Survey came in at 23.8, missing the expected 25 and contracting from 30.7 in September.
Generally speaking, the market mood soured as European and Asian indexes trade in the red. On the other hand, Wall Street is poised to open near all-time highs, with futures ignoring the decline in its overseas counterparts. Later in the day, the US will publish September Existing Home Sales, while the EU will release the preliminary estimate of October Consumer Confidence, previously at -4.
EURUSD extends sideways grind around 1.1650 after mixed US data. The EURUSD is struggling to find direction on Thursday and continues to fluctuate in a relatively tight range around mid-1.1600s. Mixed data releases from the US don’t seem to be having a noticeable impact on the greenback’s performance against its major rivals.
The EURUSD pair keeps trading between Fibonacci levels, meeting sellers around the 38.2% retracement of its 1.1908/1.1523 slide at 1.1670. The daily chart shows that buyers are losing interest, as technical indicators are turning south just above their midlines. At the same time, the pair is developing above a firmly bearish 20 SMA, which stands a few pips below the immediate Fibonacci support level at 1.1615.
The risk is also skewed to the downside in the near term, as the 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator turned firmly bearish and is currently pressuring its midline, while the RSI indicator consolidates at around 56.
At the same time, the pair remains above a bullish 20 SMA, a few pips below the current level. The bearish case will be firmer if the pair breaks below the 1.1610 price zone.
Support levels are at 1.1615, 1.1570, and 1.1525.
Resistance levels are at 1.1670, 1.1715, and 1.1750.
For next week, according to our technical analysis illustrated in the following 4-hour chart is recommending to Short the currency pair at or above 1.1685, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1750, and to go Long at or below 1.16206, setting a Stop Loss at 1.15252.
As of 5:48 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.16403.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, October, 22: exchange rate 1.1671 Dollars, maximum 1.1846, minimum 1.1496. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, October, 25: exchange rate 1.1692 Dollars, maximum 1.1867, minimum 1.1517. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, October, 26: exchange rate 1.1702 Dollars, maximum 1.1878, minimum 1.1526. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, October, 27: exchange rate 1.1706 Dollars, maximum 1.1882, minimum 1.1530.
In 1 week, In 1 week Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, October, 28: exchange rate 1.1706 Dollars, maximum 1.1882, minimum 1.1530. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, October, 29: exchange rate 1.1775 Dollars, maximum 1.1952, minimum 1.1598. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 1: exchange rate 1.1746 Dollars, maximum 1.1922, minimum 1.1570. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 2: exchange rate 1.1741 Dollars, maximum 1.1917, minimum 1.1565. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 3: exchange rate 1.1750 Dollars, maximum 1.1926, minimum 1.1574.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.