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Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.06, setting a Stop Loss at 1.045, and going Short at or above 1.061, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08.
This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0609 high and 1.0507 low, set yesterday Wednesday.
So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0530, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0606, for 0.72% profit. Also, on Monday, we could have short it at 1.0606, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0530. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0524, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0599, for 0.71% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0508, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0608, for 0.95% profit. Also, on Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.0608, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0508, for 0.95% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0515, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0554, for an extra 0.37% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD struggles to stage a rebound and trades below 1.0550 in the European morning on Thursday after closing in negative territory on Wednesday. The pair remains technically bearish in the near term as market participants await macroeconomic data releases from the US.
The modest increase seen in the US Treasury bond yields and the cautious market stance helped the US Dollar (USD) stay resilient against its peers midweek, causing EUR/USD to stretch lower. Early Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that the balance of risks to growth and inflation is shifting to the downside, adding that they should continue to reduce the degree of monetary policy restriction. These comments seem to be making it difficult for the Euro to attract investors.
Later in the day, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Since reaching 260,000 in early October, the number of first-time applications declined steadily and marked its lowest print since April at 217,000 in the previous week. Markets expect Initial Jobless Claims to rise slightly to 220,000 in the week ending November 16. A reading close to 200,000 could provide a boost to the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, an expected increase, with a print above 240,000, could hurt the currency and open the door for a rebound in EURUSD.
The US economic calendar will also feature Existing Home Sales data for October and regional manufacturing surveys for November from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia and Kansas City.
For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD falls toward 1.0500 amid risk-off mood.
The currency pair has come under fresh selling pressure, easing toward 1.0500 in the European session on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from risk-off flows due to rising geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and worries over the potential US tariffs on the EU. ECB- and Fed-speak are awaited.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart started to edge lower after rising toward 50, highlighting buyers’ hesitancy. On the downside, 1.0500 (static level, mid-point of the descending regression channel) aligns as key support before 1.0450 (static level) and 1.0420 (lower limit of the descending channel).
If the EURUSD manages to rise above 1.0600-1.0590 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, upper limit of the descending channel) and stabilize there, technical buyers could show interest. In this scenario, 1.0670 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be seen as next resistance.
Next week
For next week, as we can noticed in the following chart, the EURUSD price exited from the 1.0805 resistance level, and continued to decline inside the wedge. In this pattern, the price first rose to the resistance area and tried to break the 1.0805 level, and then resumed its downtrend, reaching to the 1.0520 price zone, where we expect it to consolidate, before sellers resume their new bets.
Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.0650, setting a Stop Loss at 1.045, and going Short at or above 1.06, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07.
As of 11:31 AM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.05266.
EURUSD insights
Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.
If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 22: exchange rate 1.049 US Dollars, maximum 1.065, minimum 1.033. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 25: exchange rate 1.049 US Dollars, maximum 1.065, minimum 1.033. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 26: exchange rate 1.055 US Dollars, maximum 1.071, minimum 1.039. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 27: exchange rate 1.056 US Dollars, maximum 1.072, minimum 1.040.
EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week
In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 28: exchange rate 1.053 US Dollars, maximum 1.069, minimum 1.037. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 29: exchange rate 1.047 US Dollars, maximum 1.063, minimum 1.031. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 2: exchange rate 1.044 US Dollars, maximum 1.060, minimum 1.028. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 3: exchange rate 1.038 US Dollars, maximum 1.054, minimum 1.022. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 4: exchange rate 1.030 US Dollars, maximum 1.045, minimum 1.015.
To stay updated with our latest forecasts and trading tips, visit our Forex News section regularly. Don’t miss out on our Expert Trading Tips for advanced strategies.
Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.
