Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.1049, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Short at or above 1.1050, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1189.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1189 high set this past Wednesday, and 1.1069 low, set today, Thursday. So, on Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.1137, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1075, for 0.56% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1146, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1112, for 0.31% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1188, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1097, for 0.82% profit. Thursday, we could have short it at 1.1169, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1070, for an extra 0.89% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

Following Wednesday’s highly volatile action, the EURUSD gathers bullish momentum early Thursday and trades in positive territory above 1.1150. The US economic calendar will feature mid-tier macroeconomic data releases but the risk perception could drive the pair’s action.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it lowered the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to the range of 4.75%-5%. Markets were forecasting the Fed to cut the policy rate by 25 bps but there were growing expectations of a 50 bps cut. Nevertheless, the immediate market reaction triggered a US Dollar (USD) selloff and fuelled a leg higher in the EURUSD.

Meanwhile, the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot-plot, showed that policymakers foresee two more 25 bps rate reductions in the last two meetings of the year. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from committing to another large rate reduction, adding that they could dial back the pace of cuts if the economy remains solid.

Although the USD managed to stage a rebound in the Fed aftermath, risk flows started to dominate the financial markets early Thursday, not allowing the currency to hold its ground. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 1% and 1.75%. A bullish opening, followed by a risk rally, in Wall Street’s main indexes could further weigh on the USD and open the door for an extended rally in the EURUSD.

In the early American session, the US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.

For a detailed understanding of market trends, check out our Forex Market Analysis page, where we provide in-depth analysis of various currency pairs.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD rises further toward 1.1200, focus shifts to ECB-speak.

The currency pair stays strongly bid toward 1.1200 in the European session on Thursday. The pair capitalizes on a renewed US Dollar retreat and an upbeat mood. Traders digest the Fed’s dovish outlook, bracing for ECB-speak for fresh trading incentives. US data are also eyed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose slightly above 70, suggesting the EURUSD’s bullish bias remain intact, with a possibility of a technical correction in the near term.

On the upside, 1.1200 (static level, end-point of the uptrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.1275 (July 18, 2023, high) and 1.1300 (round level). Looking south, interim support could be spotted at 1.1130 (20-period Simple Moving Average) ahead of 1.1100 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1080 (100-period Simple Moving Average).

For next week, we believe the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Hence, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.1049, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09, and going Short at or above 1.1050, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1189.

As of 10:58 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1176.

EURUSD insights

Pivot points are a technical indicator that traders use to predict upcoming areas of technical significance, such as support and resistance. They are calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices of a previous period. That could be a day, a week or a month.

If a market is trading above its previous pivot point (known as P), it is seen as a bullish signal. If it is below, it is bearish.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, the Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 20: exchange rate 1.113 US Dollars, maximum 1.130, minimum 1.096. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 23: exchange rate 1.111 US Dollars, maximum 1.128, minimum 1.094. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 24: exchange rate 1.117 US Dollars, maximum 1.134, minimum 1.100. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 25: exchange rate 1.117 US Dollars, maximum 1.134, minimum 1.100.

EUR to USD Forecast for Next Week

In 1 week, the Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 26: exchange rate 1.123 US Dollars, maximum 1.140, minimum 1.106. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 27: exchange rate 1.122 US Dollars, maximum 1.139, minimum 1.105. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 30: exchange rate 1.120 US Dollars, maximum 1.137, minimum 1.103. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, October, 1: exchange rate 1.115 US Dollars, maximum 1.132, minimum 1.098. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, October, 2: exchange rate 1.112 US Dollars, maximum 1.129, minimum 1.095.

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Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!