Forex Forecast: 20 – 24 September 2021

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to Short the currency pair, at or above 1.18, setting a Stop loss at 1.19, and go Long at or below $1.19, setting a Stop loss at 1.18.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1846 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.1767 low, set today, Thursday. So, Monday, we could have short the currency pair at 1.1816, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1771, for 0.38% profit, and going Long at 1.1771, selling it at 1.1816, for 0.38% profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1844, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.18.01, for 0.36% ROI and going Long at 1.1801, selling it at 1.1844, for 0.36% ROI. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1831, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.18, for 0.26% profit and going Long at 1.18, selling it at 1.1831, for 0.26% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have short it again at 1.1819, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1769, for an extra 0.42% ROI and going Long at 1.1769, selling it at 1.1819, for an extra 0.42% ROI. Hence, an outstanding trading opportunity for Long and Short positions throughout this week.

Fundamental Overview

How low can the euro go?

The world’s most popular currency pair has dropped to a near three-week low in response to dollar demand. The greenback has been receiving flows throughout the week – regardless of data. It may be in for a reality check.

On Thursday, it is essential to remember that the move began before the release of upbeat US Retail Sales. US consumers were busy spending on almost everything, with auto sales and restaurants being the exception. Headline sales leaped 0.8% against a fall of 0.7% projected and core figures also rose.

Good US data should improve the market mood and eventually weigh on the dollar.

Apart from retail data, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat estimates with 30.7 points, while the inflation component eased from the highs. It adds to the picture of an improving economy while price pressures are easing.

Stock markets remain under pressure but that may change and eventually send investors away from the safe-haven dollar.

US Data Analysis: Strong demand, weaker inflation, Goldilocks state for markets set to return

In the old continent, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the recovery has been faster than anticipated six months ago and that “we are back from the brink.” While Lagarde added that “we are still not out of the woods,” her message was upbeat.

 Overall, fundamentals point to a EURUSD bounce.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD extends losses after robust US retail sales, as is trading closer to 1.1750, extending its losses after US Retail Sales came out at +0.7% against -0.8% in August. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the economy is still not out of the woods.

As shown in the following chart. the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is touching the 30 level, indicating oversold conditions, implying a bounce. On the other hand, euro/dollar slipped under the 200 Simple Moving Average, while momentum is leaning lower.

Support awaits at 1.1740, which was a swing high in mid-August. It is followed by 1.1725, a cushion from late last month. Further down, 1.1690 and 1.1660 are eyed.

Resistance is at 1.1675, last week’s low. The next level to watch is 1.18, a support line from recent days, followed by 1.1845.

 

For next week, our technical indicators suggest to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.17642, setting a stop loss at 1.1730, and Short the EURUSD at above 1.18793, setting a Stop loss at 1.1903. In the very short-run EUR is due for a price bounce from the current levels.

 

As of 3:46 AM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.17636.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, September, 17: exchange rate 1.1823 Dollars, maximum 1.2000, minimum 1.1646. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, September, 20: exchange rate 1.1823 Dollars, maximum 1.2000, minimum 1.1646. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, September, 21: exchange rate 1.1830 Dollars, maximum 1.2007, minimum 1.1653. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, September, 22: exchange rate 1.1823 Dollars, maximum 1.2000, minimum 1.1646.

 

In 1 week, In 1 week Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, September, 23: exchange rate 1.1823 Dollars, maximum 1.2000, minimum 1.1646. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, September, 24: exchange rate 1.1764 Dollars, maximum 1.1940, minimum 1.1588. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, September, 27: exchange rate 1.1771 Dollars, maximum 1.1948, minimum 1.1594. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, September, 28: exchange rate 1.1764 Dollars, maximum 1.1940, minimum 1.1588. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, September, 29: exchange rate 1.1768 Dollars, maximum 1.1945, minimum 1.1591.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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