Forex Forecast: 18 – 22 October 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.15693, setting a Stop Loss at 1.14, and Short it at or above 1.18817, setting a Stop Loss at 1.196779.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1600 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.1524 low, set this past Tuesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1551, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1586, for 0.3% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1526, selling it at 1.1569, for 0.37% ROI. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1532, selling it at 1.1598, for an extra 0.57% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair trades around the 1.1600 threshold, retreating from an intraday high of 1.1623. The greenback started the day on the backfoot, although it seems better poised heading into the US opening, particularly against its European rival.

Elsewhere, the market’s mood seems to be improving. European indexes are up, leading to a nice bounce in Wall Street. At the same time, US government bond yields keep leading the way, currently hovering around their closing levels.

The EU did not publish relevant macroeconomic data, but the US published the September Producer Price Index, which was up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the August readings although below the market’s expectations. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 8 printed at 293K, much better than the 319K expected.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD touched a daily high of 1.1624 but seems to be having a difficult time pushing higher in the early American session. The data from the US showed on Thursday that the PPI continued to increase in September and weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since March 2020.

 

The EURUSD pair may have well completed a bullish corrective movement, according to the daily chart. It shows that the intraday rally stalled just ahead of a firmly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer ones maintain their bearish slopes far above it. Technical indicators remain within negative levels, with the RSI flat at around 41, indicating decreased buying interest.

The near-term picture is similar, as the above 4-hour chart shows that sellers appeared around a mildly bearish 100 SMA, while technical indicators retreat from near overbought readings. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA aims marginally higher at around 1.1550, providing dynamic support. The risk will turn to the downside, with fresh lows at sight on a break below the latter.

Support levels are at 1.1550, 1.1520, and 1.1475.

Resistance levels are at 1.1640, 1.1685, and 1.1730.

For next week, Our technical analysis are recommending to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1620, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1460, and Short it at or above 1.1740, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1860.

 

As of 5:48 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.15873.

 EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, October, 15: exchange rate 1.1670 Dollars, maximum 1.1845, minimum 1.1495. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, October, 18: exchange rate 1.1642 Dollars, maximum 1.1817, minimum 1.1467. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, October, 19: exchange rate 1.1637 Dollars, maximum 1.1812, minimum 1.1462. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, October, 20: exchange rate 1.1646 Dollars, maximum 1.1821, minimum 1.1471.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, October, 21: exchange rate 1.1662 Dollars, maximum 1.1837, minimum 1.1487. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, October, 22: exchange rate 1.1602 Dollars, maximum 1.1776, minimum 1.1428. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, October, 25: exchange rate 1.1579 Dollars, maximum 1.1753, minimum 1.1405. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, October, 26: exchange rate 1.1608 Dollars, maximum 1.1782, minimum 1.1434. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, October, 27: exchange rate 1.1619 Dollars, maximum 1.1793, minimum 1.1445.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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