Forex Forecast: 16 – 20 August 2021
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1840, setting a stop loss at 1.17, and to Short it at or above 1.19866, setting a stop loss at 1.21124.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1769 high, set this past Monday, and 1.1705 low, set Wednesday. Hence, we could have gone Long on the currency pair on Monday at 1.1726, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1767, for 0.35% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1712, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1742, for 0.26% profit. Wednesday, we could have gone bought it at 1.1707, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1751, for 0.38% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1725, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1747, for an extra 0.19% ROI.
The EURUSD pair spent the first half of the day hovering around Wednesday’s close, unable to advance beyond the 1.1750 level. Markets stood quiet after digesting the latest US update on inflation, which supported the wait-and-see stance adopted by the US Federal Reserve.
Demand for the greenback eased, but the American currency seems well-positioned to resume its advance after Wednesday’s modest decline.
Data coming from the EU keeps disappointing. June Industrial Production in the Union was down by 0.3% seasonally adjusted, missing the market’s expectations. As for the US, the country published the July Producer Price Index, up 7.8% YoY, surpassing expectations. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 6, came in at 375K as expected.
EURUSD retreats with a batch of encouraging US data, trading lower in range, below the 1.1750 level. Markets are on hold, although the greenback is getting some attention from encouraging US data. PPI rose to 7.8% YoY in July, unemployment claims contracted to 375K as expected.
The EURUSD pair is neutral in the near-term, although the risk is skewed to the downside. The above 4-hour chart shows that it is stuck around a flat 20 SMA, while well below the longer moving averages, which head marginally lower.
Meanwhile, technical indicators gyrate south, the Momentum around its midline and the RSI at 40. A steeper decline could be expected on a break below 1.1705, the immediate support level.
Support levels are at 1.1705, 1.1660, and1.1620, while Resistance levels are at 1.1750, 1.1790, and 1.1830.
For next week, as illustrated in the following chart, our technical indicators suggest to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.17, setting a stop loss at 1.16, and to Short it, in the very short-term at or above 1.1750 setting a stop loss at 1.1850.
As of 02:56 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.17245.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 13: exchange rate 1.1763 Dollars, maximum 1.1939, minimum 1.1587. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 16: exchange rate 1.1645 Dollars, maximum 1.1820, minimum 1.1470. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 17: exchange rate 1.1645 Dollars, maximum 1.1820, minimum 1.1470. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 18: exchange rate 1.1645 Dollars, maximum 1.1820, minimum 1.1470.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.1645 Dollars, maximum 1.1820, minimum 1.1470. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 20: exchange rate 1.1621 Dollars, maximum 1.1795, minimum 1.1447. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 23: exchange rate 1.1614 Dollars, maximum 1.1788, minimum 1.1440. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 24: exchange rate 1.1618 Dollars, maximum 1.1792, minimum 1.1444. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 25: exchange rate 1.1598 Dollars, maximum 1.1772, minimum 1.1424.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.