Forex Forecast: 16 – 20/11/2020
How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested going short on the currency pair at or above 1.1831, setting a stop loss at 1.19, and to go long at or below 1.1650. The currency pair through this week has been trading between 1.1920 and 1.1745. So this past Monday, we could have short the EURUSD at 1.1920, covering it at 1.1795, realizing a 1.05% ROI. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.1844, covering it at 1.1780, for 0.54% gain. Wednesday, we could have shorted it at 1.1834, covering it at 1.1745, for a 0.75 profit, and today Thursday, we could have short it at 1.1823, covering the short position in an intraday trading for an extra 0.54% ROI.
The EURUSD pair flirted with the 1.1800 level during London trading hours, as demand for the dollar and equities eased. Investors’ mood has been dented by resurgent pandemic concerns, as hopes for a soon-to-come vaccine are being overshadowed by record cases in Europe and the US.
European data is putting a cap to the EUR, as September Industrial Production in the EU fell by 0.4% in the month and was down 6.8% when compared to a year earlier, missing the market’s expectations. Germany reported the final reading of October inflation, which met the market’s forecast.
As for the US, the country has just published October CPI figures, which came in worse than anticipated. The core Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy printed at 0.% MoM and contracted to 1.6% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 6, however, improved to 709K.
EURUSD is trading around 1.18, finding its feet. Rising European and US coronavirus cases loom on the currency pair counter the breakthrough in obtaining a vaccine. Speeches by ECB Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell are awaited.
The EURUSD pair is stuck around 1.1800, the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily advance. The 4-hour chart above shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside, as a bearish 20 SMA rejects bulls, while technical indicators are retreating from their midlines, although still within neutral levels and with limited directional strength. Bears would have better chances
on a break below 1.1740, the immediate support level.
Support levels are at 1.1740, 1.1695, and 1.1650. Resistance levels are at 1.1840, 1.1885, and 1.1920.
For next week and as illustrated in the following EURUSD 4-hour chart, EURUSD, our technical indicators are suggesting to go short on the currency pait at or above 1.17777, setting a stop loss at 1.19, and to go long at or below 1.16357.
As of 3:46 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.1810.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, November, 13: exchange rate 1.1737 Dollars, maximum 1.1913, minimum 1.1561. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 16: exchange rate 1.1742 Dollars, maximum 1.1918, minimum 1.1566. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 17: exchange rate 1.1684 Dollars, maximum 1.1859, minimum 1.1509. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 18: exchange rate 1.1736 Dollars, maximum 1.1912, minimum 1.1560.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 19: exchange rate 1.1833 Dollars, maximum 1.2010, minimum 1.1656. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 20: exchange rate 1.1832 Dollars, maximum 1.2009, minimum 1.1655. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, November, 23: exchange rate 1.1919 Dollars, maximum 1.2098, minimum 1.1740. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, November, 24: exchange rate 1.1913 Dollars, maximum 1.2092, minimum 1.1734. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, November, 25: exchange rate 1.1887 Dollars, maximum 1.2065, minimum 1.1709.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.