Forex Forecast: 15 – 19 March 2021


EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested go short at or above 1.20841, to cover all shorts, and initiate new Long positions at or below 1.20194.  This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1974 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.1835 low, set this past Tuesday. So, this week, we could have bought the currency pair on Monday at 1.1846 on an intraday trading, selling it at 1.1931, for 0.72% profit, Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1837, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1915, for 0.60% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1870, selling it on a intraday trading at 1.1929, for 0.5% profit. Today, we could have bought it at 1.1914, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1972, for an extra 0.49% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair extended its recovery, reaching the 1.1967 level during the London session and ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. The American currency is eased alongside yields, undermined by resurgent optimism. The US House passed President Joe Biden’s stimulus bill on Wednesday, sending equities sharply up.

European indexes, however, trade with modest losses, unable to follow the lead of their overseas counterparts. Partially overshadowing optimism, news indicated that some EU countries suspended vaccinations with the AstraZeneca shot after some cases of blood cots were reported.

Meanwhile, the distribution of Covid vaccines in the area remains sluggish, and more delays are expected, all of which will undermine the region’s economic comeback.

The ECB maintained rates unchanged, alongside the size of PEPP, although policymakers announced that bond purchases over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year. German bund yields fell on the headline, but EURUSD hold on to the higher ground. Ahead of Wall Street’s opening, ECB’s head Christine Lagarde is offering a press conference, while the US published Initial Jobless Claims, which resulted at 712K in the week ended March 5, better than anticipated.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading around 1.1950, below the highs. The ECB has left its policy unchanged and pledges to ramp up its bond buys in the upcoming quarter. Markets await the 30-year bond auction in the US.


The EURUSD pair peaked at 1.1974 with the announcement, currently retreating and trading in the 1.1950 price zone. The pair met sellers around the 50% retracement of its November/January rally.

The above 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA hovers around a Fibonacci support level at 1.1885, while technical indicators ease within positive levels, far from suggesting an upcoming decline.

Support levels are at 1.1920, 1.1885, and 1.1840, while Resistance levels are at 1.1975, 1.2010, and 1.3060.

For next week, our technical indicator are suggesting a continued negative slope as indicated in the following chart before starting to consolidate around 1.18514 price area.  Therefore, we would go short at or above 1.19441, and initiate new Long positions at or below 1.19.


As of 5:28 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.19718.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, March, 12: exchange rate 1.1961 Dollars, maximum 1.2140, minimum 1.1782. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 15: exchange rate 1.2008 Dollars, maximum 1.2188, minimum 1.1828. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 16: exchange rate 1.1941 Dollars, maximum 1.2120, minimum 1.1762. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 17: exchange rate 1.1890 Dollars, maximum 1.2068, minimum 1.1712.


In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 18: exchange rate 1.1798 Dollars, maximum 1.1975, minimum 1.1621. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 19: exchange rate 1.1778 Dollars, maximum 1.1955, minimum 1.1601. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 22: exchange rate 1.1813 Dollars, maximum 1.1990, minimum 1.1636. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 23: exchange rate 1.1779 Dollars, maximum 1.1956, minimum 1.1602. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 24: exchange rate 1.1685 Dollars, maximum 1.1860, minimum 1.1510.







Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.