Forex Forecast: 15 – 19 January 2024 for MT4 MT5

Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.09714, setting a Stop Loss at 1.08, and going Short at or above 1.09715, setting a Stop Loss at 1.10764.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.1000 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0910 low set this past Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0923, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.09715, for 0.44% profit. Also Monday, we could have short it at 1.09714, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0923, for 0.44% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0966, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0909, for 0.52% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0923, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.09715, for 0.44% profit. Also Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.09714, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0923, for 0.44% profit. Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0933, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.09715, for an extra 0.35 ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

Financial markets ended Wednesday in a better mood, helped by Wall Street ending the day in the green. Asian and European indexes advanced, retaining gains ahead of the United States (US) opening and the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Speculative interest remained side-lined for most of the week, awaiting fresh clues on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do next. Last week, stronger than anticipated, American employment-related figures put into doubt the chance of a soon-to-come rate cut, although after the dust settled, markets kept betting rates would be reduced next March.

CPI figures will likely confirm or deny such a view, with markets reacting in consequence. Price pressures are seen up by 3.2% YoY, increasing from the previous 3.1%. However, the core annual reading is foreseen at 3.8%, easing from the last 4%. Finally, the monthly CPI is expected at 0.2%. Results beyond market expectations could lead to speculation on reduced chances for a rate cut in March, pushing stock markets lower and the US Dollar higher on risk aversion.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said the French economy is slowing but won’t have a recession, adding inflation should slow below 3% in a few months and return to 2% by the end of 2025. Earlier this week,  Villeroy affirmed the central bank should cut rates this year.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD holds near 1.0950 after US inflation data.

The currency pair declined toward 1.0930 as markets reacted to stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index data from the US. With Wall Street’s main indexes opening slightly higher, however, the US Dollar lost some strength and helped the pair find a foothold.

The  EURUSD pair trades near a fresh weekly high of 1.0988, and the daily chart shows bulls aim to retake control. The pair is battling to clear a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average  (SMA), which stands right around the current level, as the longer moving averages hold directionless far below the current level. In the meantime, technical indicators remain stuck to their midlines without evident directional strength.

In the near term, and according to the above 4-hour chart, buyers add pressure. EURUSD develops above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, which advances above a flat 200 SMA. At the same time, the price struggles around a directionless 100 SMA, with a clear break above it further encouraging bulls. Finally, technical indicators tick higher within positive levels, with modest bullish strength but still skewing the risk to the upside.

Support levels are at 1.0960, 1.0920, and 1.0885.

Resistance levels are at 1.1015, 1.1060, and 1.1100.

For the next week, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.09922, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0800, and going Short at or above 1.1000, setting a Stop Loss at 1.1135.

As of 15:50 PM (UTC), the EURUSD was trading at 1.09492.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, January, 12: exchange rate 1.102 US Dollars, maximum 1.119, minimum 1.085. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, January, 15: exchange rate 1.100 US Dollars, maximum 1.117, minimum 1.084. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, January, 16: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, January, 17: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, January, 18: exchange rate 1.103 US Dollars, maximum 1.120, minimum 1.086. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, January, 19: exchange rate 1.101 US Dollars, maximum 1.118, minimum 1.084. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, January, 22: exchange rate 1.091 US Dollars, maximum 1.107, minimum 1.075. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, January, 23: exchange rate 1.092 US Dollars, maximum 1.108, minimum 1.076. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, January, 24: exchange rate 1.089 US Dollars, maximum 1.105, minimum 1.073.

 

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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