Forex Forecast: 15 – 19 February 2021
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short on the currency pair at or above 1.2017, and Buy it at or below 1.1650. This week, EURUSD price range was 1.2149 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.2019 low, set this past Monday. So, Monday, we could have Short it at 1.2065, buying it back at 1.2021, for 0.4% intraday trading profit. Tuesday, we could have short it at 1.2120, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.2043, for 0.57%. Wednesday, we could have short it at 12143, covering it at 1.2010 for 1.1% intraday trading profit. Today, Thursday, we could have short it at 1.2147, covering it at 1.2115 for an extra 0.26% ROI.
The EURUSD pair trades at fresh weekly highs but still confined to a tight intraday range amid the absence of a relevant catalyst. The dollar remains the weakest currency across the board, undermined by also weaker US Treasury yields. Dovish comments from US Federal Reserve chief’s Jerome Powell weighed on investors mood late on Wednesday, as he indicated that rates would remain at record lows until employment and inflation reach the desired levels, which will take longer.
The macroeconomic calendar was scarce in terms of relevant figures. Germany published the January Wholesale Price Index, which was up 2.1% in the month, but remained flat when compared to a year earlier. The US just published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 5, which resulted at 793K worse than expected.
EURUSD trades near 1.2150, a new weekly high, as the market mood remains upbeat. Dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell and hopes about US stimulus are behind the optimism. US jobless claims missed estimates with 793,000.
The EURUSD pair is trading near its weekly high with a positive stance, although with limited directional momentum. In the above 4-hour chart, the pair is nearing a flat 200 SMA, but above the 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging around 1.2100.
Technical indicators turned marginally higher within positive levels, skewing the risk to the upside. Bulls will have better chances if the pair breaks above the 1.2170/80 price zone.
Support levels are at 1.2100, 1.2065, and 1.2020. Resistance levels are at 1.2170, 1.2215, and 1.2260.
For next week, as illustrated in the following EURUSD chart, our technical indicators are suggesting to go Short on the currency pair at or above 1.2140, as we are around 0.50% Fibonacci, and we have some valid rejection around this area. Hence, it can be a good opportunity for shorts, and longs to lock in profits from this week. Further, we believe the best time to enter as seller or opening more shorts is around 1.2190-1.2210.
As of 4:00 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.21319.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 12: exchange rate 1.2127 Dollars, maximum 1.2309, minimum 1.1945. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 15: exchange rate 1.2194 Dollars, maximum 1.2377, minimum 1.2011. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, February, 16: exchange rate 1.2195 Dollars, maximum 1.2378, minimum 1.2012. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 17: exchange rate 1.2281 Dollars, maximum 1.2465, minimum 1.2097.1.1763. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 10: exchange rate 1.1953 Dollars, maximum 1.2132, minimum 1.1774.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, February, 18: exchange rate 1.2210 Dollars, maximum 1.2393, minimum 1.2027. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, February, 19: exchange rate 1.2202 Dollars, maximum 1.2385, minimum 1.2019. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, February, 22: exchange rate 1.2179 Dollars, maximum 1.2362, minimum 1.1996. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, February, 23: exchange rate 1.2112 Dollars, maximum 1.2294, minimum 1.1930. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, February, 24: exchange rate 1.2123 Dollars, maximum 1.2305, minimum 1.1941.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.