Forex Forecast: 15 – 19/06/2020
How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement
EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go long on the EURUSD with an entry price level at or above 1.11670, and stop-loss at 1.1005, for profit taking at 1.13615. It was also recommended to short the currency pair at or above 1.14950. Indeed, throughout this week, there were many Long trading opportunities. For example, Monday, we could have bought it at 1.1267, and sell it at 1.13615, for 0.84% profit. Tuesday, buy it at 1.1241, sell it at 1.13615, for 1.07% profit. Wednesday, buy it at 1.1322 and selling it today at 1.13615 for an extra 0.35% gain.
The EURUSD pair hovers around the 1.1340 level this Thursday, marginally lower daily basis. The lack of a directional bias can be attributed to the outcome of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The central bank kept its current policy unchanged and maintained the pledge to do whatever it takes to keep the economy afloat. However, policymakers intent on keeping rates at the current low levels at least through the next two years, somehow indicating that the economic recovery will take long, once the ongoing crisis is over.
Uncertainties are high in the economic front but also in the pandemic front.
Stocks are sharply down, accelerating their declines ahead of the US opening, while demand for the greenback is limited. Meanwhile, the US has just published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 5, which came in at 1.54 million, slightly better than anticipated. The Producer Price Index in the country rose by 0.4% in the month and increased by 0.3% when compared to a year earlier.
EURUSD struggles on the low ground after the Fed, weak jobless claims. EURUSD is trading below 1.1350, as the Fed’s pessimism about the economy overcoming the bank’s pledge to support the economy. The euro-zone is discussing stimulus and US initial jobless claims met expectations while continuing once missed.
The EURUSD pair is nearing its daily low at 1.1335, and the 4-hour chart shows that a mildly bullish 20 SMA continues to provide intraday support around the mentioned daily low. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned lower but hold within positive levels. The 100 and 200 SMA maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level. The bearish case could be stronger if the pair pierces the 1.1310 static support level.
Support levels are at 1.1310, 1.1260, and 1.1220, while Resistance levels are at 1.1385, 1.1420, and 1.1460.
For next week, our technical indicators suggest going long, based on the technical “Bat” formation, which is about to be completed, as illustrated in the following chart, suggesting a buy entry price at1.13813, and stop-loss at 1.12 for profit-taking at or above 1.15.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 12: exchange rate 1.1418 Dollars, maximum 1.1589, minimum 1.1247. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 15: exchange rate 1.1464 Dollars, maximum 1.1636, minimum 1.1292. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 16: exchange rate 1.1469 Dollars, maximum 1.1641, minimum 1.1297. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 17: exchange rate 1.1420 Dollars, maximum 1.1591, minimum 1.1249.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 18: exchange rate 1.1521 Dollars, maximum 1.1694, minimum 1.1348. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 19: exchange rate 1.1585 Dollars, maximum 1.1759, minimum 1.1411. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 22: exchange rate 1.1628 Dollars, maximum 1.1802, minimum 1.1454. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 23: exchange rate 1.1656 Dollars, maximum 1.1831, minimum 1.1481. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 24: exchange rate 1.1683 Dollars, maximum 1.1858, minimum 1.1508.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.