Forex Forecast: 14 – 18 June 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to maintain Short positions on the EURUSD and continuing to go Short on the currency pair at or above 1.2175, setting a stop loss at 1.2250.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.2219 high, set yesterday, Wednesday, and 1.2144 low, set today. Hence, on Monday, we could have Short the currency pair at 1.2201, buying it back on an intraday trading at 1.2147, for 0.44% profit. Tuesday, we could have short  it at 1.2194, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.2161, for 0.27% profit. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.2217, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.2168, for 0.4%  and today, Thursday, we could have short it at 1.2193, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.2142, for an extra 0.42% profit.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is up but below the 1.2200 figure, with the greenback shedding ground against most of its major rivals. As widely anticipated, the European Central Bank left rates and its easing programs unchanged in its June decision. Policymakers announced that rates will remain at present or lower levels until inflation approaches their goal. Also, they repeated that the PEPP would continue to run at a significantly higher pace than in Q1.

Meanwhile, US inflation was upwardly revised to 5% YoY in May, accelerating at its fastest pace in almost 13 years. The initial reaction to the news was a higher dollar, although it lacked follow-through.

Core annual inflation was upwardly revised to 3.8% YoY from the previous estimate of 3%. The US also published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 4, which resulted at 376K, better than the previous 385K but slightly above the 370K expected.

ECB’s President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference and may spur some action.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD falls after dovish ECB, strong US CPI to around 1.2150 after the ECB prolonged its high pace of bond buys. The dollar is advancing after US CPI hit 5% YoY in May, beating estimates.

 

The EURUSD pair is modestly up, trading in the 1.2190 price zone. The near-term picture is neutral-to-bullish, but the momentum is still missing.

In the above 4-hour chart, the pair is still trading within directionless moving averages, which offer slightly ascendant slopes. Technical indicators head higher but remain at neutral levels. Bulls could have better chances if the pair clearly breaks above the 1.2200 level.

Support levels are at 1.2160, 1.2120, and 1.2070.

Resistance levels are at 1.2200, 1.2245, and 1.2280.

 For next week, and as illustrated in the following chart, our technical indicators suggest to short the EURUSD at or above 1.21892, setting a stop loss at 1.2285, and to go Long at or below 1.2050, setting a stop loss at 1.20.

 

As of 3:37 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.21855

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 11: exchange rate 1.2198 Dollars, maximum 1.2381, minimum 1.2015. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 14: exchange rate 1.2198 Dollars, maximum 1.2381, minimum 1.2015. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 15: exchange rate 1.2198 Dollars, maximum 1.2381, minimum 1.2015. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 16: exchange rate 1.2234 Dollars, maximum 1.2418, minimum 1.2050.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 17: exchange rate 1.2150 Dollars, maximum 1.2332, minimum 1.1968. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 18: exchange rate 1.2149 Dollars, maximum 1.2331, minimum 1.1967. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 21: exchange rate 1.2134 Dollars, maximum 1.2316, minimum 1.1952. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 22: exchange rate 1.2172 Dollars, maximum 1.2355, minimum 1.1989. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 23: exchange rate 1.2166 Dollars, maximum 1.2348, minimum 1.1984.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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