Forex Forecast: 13 – 17 December 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long at or below 1.13136, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12348, and to Short the currency pair at or above 1.13146, setting a Stop Loss at 1.13814.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1356 high, set this past Wednesday, and 1.1228 low, set also on Tuesday. So, this past Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.1268, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1319, for 0.45% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1230, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1299, for 0.61% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1266, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1354, for 0.78% profit. Also, Wednesday we could also have Short the currency pair at 1.1346, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1266, for 0.71% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1281, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1342, for an extra 0.54% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is down to the 1.1310 level after topping at 1.1358 on Wednesday, as the dollar recovers its pose, while the shared currency suffers from an ECB-related headline.

According to Reuters and citing sources familiar with the matter, the European Central Bank Governing Council members are converging on a debate over a limited and temporary increase of Asset Purchases Programme (APP) in the December meeting.

Meanwhile, global stocks trade mixed, with European indexes stuck around their opening levels. Wall Street is poised to open with modest losses, while US Treasury yields retreated from their weekly highs.

Germany published the October Trade Balance, which posted a surplus of €12.5 billion, missing expectations despite increasing exports and imports. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 3, which contracted by more than anticipated to 184K.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD accelerates slump sub 1.1300, trading in the 1.1280 region, as the dollar keeps grinding higher will rumors about the ECB extending the APP facilities program as soon as next week hurt the shared currency.

 

The EURUSD pair trades near a Fibonacci level at 1.1305, losing its positive momentum in the near term but still far from suggesting an upcoming decline. The above 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have retreated from their recent highs, but also that they remain within positive levels, without clear directional strength.

As we can see in the above chart, the pair continues to develop above its 20 and 100 SMAs, both a few pips below the current level. The risk would turn to the downside on a break below 1.1300, while the main resistance is 1.1380, the 38.2% retracement of the November decline.

Support levels are at 1.1300, 1.1265, and 1.1220.

Resistance levels are at 1.1345, 1.1380, and 1.1425.

For next week and has the following chart indicates, we have a solid breakout from the pattern and the price should continue moving higher. The first targets that we are looking at are: 1.1440 and 1.1500.

According to our technical analysis illustrated in the following chart, it is recommending to go Long at or below 1.13699, setting a Stop Loss at 1.12379, and to Short the currency pair at or above 1.1440, setting a Stop Loss at 1.15.

 

As of 5:22 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.2866.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, December, 10: exchange rate 1.1415 Dollars, maximum 1.1586, minimum 1.1244. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, December, 13: exchange rate 1.1401 Dollars, maximum 1.1572, minimum 1.1230. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, December, 14: exchange rate 1.1371 Dollars, maximum 1.1542, minimum 1.1200. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, December, 15: exchange rate 1.1380 Dollars, maximum 1.1551, minimum 1.1209.

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, December, 16: exchange rate 1.1366 Dollars, maximum 1.1536, minimum 1.1196. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, December, 17: exchange rate 1.1368 Dollars, maximum 1.1539, minimum 1.1197. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 20: exchange rate 1.1368 Dollars, maximum 1.1539, minimum 1.1197. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 21: exchange rate 1.1368 Dollars, maximum 1.1539, minimum 1.1197. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 22: exchange rate 1.1478 Dollars, maximum 1.1650, minimum 1.1306.

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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