Forex Forecast: 13 – 17/07/2020

How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement


EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to Short the EURUSD at or above 1.1348, and to go long on the currency pair between 1.1228 and 1.1174. Indeed, through this week there were many trading opportunities for Longs and Shorts, as predicted in the last week report. This past Monday, we could have bought the EURUSD at 1.1240 and sold it, Tuesday at 1.1334, gaining 0.94%. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.1258, selling it Wednesday at 1.1352, locking in an extra  0.83% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1262, and selling it today at 1.1371, with an extra gain of 0.97%. Today, we could have short the currency pair at 1.1371, closing the short position earlier today at 1.1286 for a 1.14% gain.


Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is trading around the same level it closed on Wednesday, at the 1.1330/40 area, attempting to rise back above 1.1350. Earlier on Thursday, the pair peaked at 1.1370, the highest level in four weeks.


The greenback then managed to stabilize and trimmed a small part of its recent losses across the board, favouring the correction in EURUSD. The greenback continues to be under pressure, trading near monthly lows. Equity markets are mixed across the world. An improvement in risk sentiment could clear the way for more losses for the USD.


Economic data did not alter market sentiment. US weekly initial jobless claims came in a 1314K slightly below the 1375K expected. Also, continuing claims fell more than expected to 18,062K against 19,290K. Claims continue to show an improvement in the situation of the labour market, but still, numbers are far from normal (negatively). Coronavirus cases data in the US to be released over the next hours will be watched closely.


Technical Analysis

EURUSD struggling around 1.13 as stocks fall. EURUSD is trading off the highs as concerns about coronavirus and the court decision to hand Trump’s financial to a grand jury trigger political uncertainty. US jobless claims beat expectations.



The EURUSD pair is trading near 1.1350 and bullish, in a short-term ascendant channel above key moving averages. If it rises above 1.1350 the momentum would favour another test of the daily high at the 1.1370 region. A consolidation clearly above 1.1375 would suggest more gains ahead and a test to 1.1400. The positive short-term outlook will remain in place as long as it holds above 1.1300; a break lower would suggest an extension of the correction. A close under 1.1255 (20-day moving average) could point to an interim peak.



Support levels are at 1.1315, 1.1295, and 1.1260. Resistance levels are at  1.1370, 1.1400, and  1.1425,


For next week, our technical indicators suggest go Long on the EURUSD between 1.12939 and 1.12, for a target price of 1.14936, and to Short it at  around 1.11786, as the following chart illustrates.




EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, July, 10: exchange rate 1.1390 Dollars, maximum 1.1561, minimum 1.1219. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, July, 13: exchange rate 1.1357 Dollars, maximum 1.1527, minimum 1.1187. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, July, 14: exchange rate 1.1419 Dollars, maximum 1.1590, minimum 1.1248. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, July, 15: exchange rate 1.1429 Dollars, maximum 1.1600, minimum 1.1258.



In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, July, 16: exchange rate 1.1416 Dollars, maximum 1.1587, minimum 1.1245. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, July, 17: exchange rate 1.1435 Dollars, maximum 1.1607, minimum 1.1263. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 20: exchange rate 1.1421 Dollars, maximum 1.1592, minimum 1.1250. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 21: exchange rate 1.1451 Dollars, maximum 1.1623, minimum 1.1279. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 22: exchange rate 1.1451 Dollars, maximum 1.1623, minimum 1.1279.




Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.



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