Forex Forecast: 12 – 16 July 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short on the EURUSD at or above 1.1981, setting a stop loss at 1.2053, and to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.1952, setting a stop loss at or below 1.18396.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1896 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.1782 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. Hence, we could have Bought the currency pair this past Monday at 1.1853, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1880 for 0.23% profit. Tuesday, we could bought it at 1.1808, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1894, for 0.75% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.1784, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1837, for 0.45%. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1785, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.1863, for an extra 0.66% profit.

Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is up this Thursday, despite renewed risk-aversion. Safe-haven assets advance against the greenback, while the latter appreciates against most other rivals, except the shared currency.

Stocks plunged in Europe, dragging Wall Street’s futures lower, amid concerns related to the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant and signs of slowing global growth. Treasury yields are sharply down to multi-month lows, indicating a strong appetite for safety.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has shifted to a symmetric inflation target of 2% contrary to a ceiling at that level, allowing higher inflation to compensate for previous undershooting. President Christine Lagarde is set to offer a speech and explain the decision ahead of Wall Street’s opening.

Macroeconomic figures have missed expectations. The German Trade Balance posted a modest surplus of €12.6 billion in May, while Initial Jobless Claims in the US resulted in 373K in the week ended July 2, both worse than expected.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD holds onto gains near 1.1850 after ECB strategy announcement.

The ECB announced a shift to a symmetric inflation target of 2% rather than aiming to cap price rises at that level. President Lagarde’s speech is awaited.

 

The EURUSD pair trades near a daily high of 1.1852. The 4-hour chart shows that it has managed to advance above a mildly bearish 20 SMA, although the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes well above the current level.

The RSI advances, heading north within positive levels, but the Momentum hovers below its midline, with limited upward strength. Bulls may regain control once the pair extends gains beyond 1.1920, a strong static Fibonacci resistance level. Given the prevalent dismal mood, the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Support levels are set at 1.1795, 1.1750, and 1.1710. Resistance levels are at 1.1885, 1.1920, and 1.1960.

 For next week, EURUSD is approaching the support line. It has formed a falling wedge and bullish divergence is displayed on many indicators, as illustrated in the following chart, which signals about possible local reversal movements. Our technical indicators are suggesting to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.18650, setting a Stop loss at 1.17002, and Short it at or above 1.21, setting a Stop loss at 1.22.

 

As of 3:39 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.18630.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, July, 9: exchange rate 1.1790 Dollars, maximum 1.1967, minimum 1.1613. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, July, 12: exchange rate 1.1790 Dollars, maximum 1.1967, minimum 1.1613. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, July, 13: exchange rate 1.1790 Dollars, maximum 1.1967, minimum 1.1613. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, July, 14: exchange rate 1.1772 Dollars, maximum 1.1949, minimum 1.1595.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, July, 15: exchange rate 1.1766 Dollars, maximum 1.1942, minimum 1.1590. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, July, 16: exchange rate 1.1723 Dollars, maximum 1.1899, minimum 1.1547. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, July, 19: exchange rate 1.1697 Dollars, maximum 1.1872, minimum 1.1522. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, July, 20: exchange rate 1.1684 Dollars, maximum 1.1859, minimum 1.1509. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, July, 21: exchange rate 1.1689 Dollars, maximum 1.1864, minimum 1.1514.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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