Forex Forecast: 12 – 16 February 2024 for MT4 MT5

 

Last week, our technical indicators suggested going Long at or below 1.0850, setting a Stop Loss at 1.07298, and going Short at or above 1.08578, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0947.

This week, the EURUSD price range was 1.0789 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.0723 low set this past Monday and Tuesday. So, on Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.07298, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0786, for 0.52% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.07298, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0762, for 0.30% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0754, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0783, for 0.27% profit.  Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0754, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0788, for an extra 0.34% ROI.

Fundamental Overview

The European Central Bank (ECB) released the Economic Bulletin, usually published two weeks after the central bank’s meeting. The document showed the Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner, adding the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. Furthermore, the document acknowledged the Euro Area economy is likely to have stagnated at the end of 2023. Finally, it reiterated that the Governing Council would maintain rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. The document did not impact the Euro, as it repeated a well-known message.

The upcoming American session will bring the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 2 and December Wholesale Inventories. Additionally, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires, and speculative interest will pay close attention to their comments in search of fresh clues. Meanwhile, the US Dollar finds near-term support in higher government bond yields ahead of auctions, with the 10-year Treasury note currently offering 4.13%.

 Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair seems poised to extend its decline. The daily chart shows it met sellers around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 20 SMA maintains its firmly bearish slope above it.

 

Also, the pair flirted with the weekly high and was unable to extend its rally, suggesting unconvinced buyers. Finally, technical indicators turned lower within negative levels, in line with resurgent selling interest.

For the near term, the above 4-hour chart supports the bearish case. Technical indicators rotated sharply lower, retaining their bearish slopes. Particularly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator anticipates further slides, as it currently stands at 41 without signs of bearish exhaustion. At the same time, EUR/USD is currently extending its slide below the 20 SMA, which formerly offered support. A steeper decline could be expected once the pair slides below 1.0720.

Support levels are at 1.0720, 1.0695, and 1.0650.

Resistance levels are at 1.0790, 1.0840, and 1.0880.

For the next week, our technical analysis is suggesting going Long at or below 1.07932, setting a Stop Loss at 1.065, and going Short at or above 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09.

 

As of 13:52 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.07416.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow Euro to US Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 9: exchange rate 1.079 US Dollars, maximum 1.095, minimum 1.063. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 12: exchange rate 1.080 US Dollars, maximum 1.096, minimum 1.064. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Tuesday, February, 13: exchange rate 1.075 US Dollars, maximum 1.091, minimum 1.059. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 14: exchange rate 1.067 US Dollars, maximum 1.083, minimum 1.051.

In 1 week, Euro to US Dollar forecast on Thursday, February, 15: exchange rate 1.073 US Dollars, maximum 1.089, minimum 1.057. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, February, 16: exchange rate 1.070 US Dollars, maximum 1.086, minimum 1.054. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Monday, February, 19: exchange rate 1.071 US Dollars, maximum 1.087, minimum 1.055. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, February, 20: exchange rate 1.069 US Dollars, maximum 1.085, minimum 1.053. Euro to US Dollar forecast on Wednesday, February, 21: exchange rate 1.070 US Dollars, maximum 1.086, minimum 1.054.

Until next article, wishing all of you wealthy trading!

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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