Forex Forecast: 12 – 16 April 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long on the EUR USD at or below 1.16419 and short at or above 1.19745. This week, EURUSD price range was 1.1922 high, set today, Thursday, and 1.1738 low, set this past Monday. Hence, keeping our trading discipline on last week technical indicators, we had no opportunity to go long or short on the currency pair, as the EURUSD continues consolidating between 1.19 and 1.17 price area, as predicted by our technical indicators.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair advances within range, recovering from an intraday low of 1.1861. The greenback is weak against all of its major rivals, as on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve reiterated its dovish stance through the Minutes of its March meeting. Policymakers agreed that the accommodative monetary policy would remain in place until “substantial further progress” towards employment and inflation goals is achieved.

The shared currency found support in commends from Robert Holzmann, Austria central bank Governor, as he said that the European Central Bank might be able to start reducing its bond purchases during the summer.

Germany published February Factory Orders, which were up 1.2% MoM and 5.6% YoY, much better than in January. The EU released the February Producer Price Index, which printed at 1.5% YoY.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 2 resulted at 744K worse than the 680K expected and the previous 728K.  Later today, US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell is due to participate in a panel discussion about the global economy at a virtual International Monetary Fund Seminar.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD has resumed its gains, recapturing 1.19. US ten-year yields dropped below 1.64%, partly related to a disappointing increase in jobless claims. Concerns about vaccines weighed on the euro earlier and Fed Chair Powell’s speech is eyed.

 

The EURUSD pair trades in the 1.1870 region, mildly bullish in the near-term. The above 4-hour chart shows that it holds above its 20 and 100 SMAs with the shorter crossing above the longer one. Technical indicators lack directional strength but hold well above their midlines, with the RSI close to overbought readings. At this point, the pair needs to advance beyond 1.1915 to gain bullish traction.

Support levels are at 1.1840, 1.1795, and 1.1750, while Resistance levels are at 1.1915, 1.1950, and 1.1995.

For next week, we may see the completion of the head  and shoulders pattern, meaning we may have a good opportunity for some nice profits on the short side of the EURUSD price equation.

As illustrated in the following chart, we would go Short at or above 1.19229, and Long below 1.17058.

 

As of 6:05 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.19217.

 

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, April, 9: exchange rate 1.1874 Dollars, maximum 1.2052, minimum 1.1696. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, April, 12: exchange rate 1.1934 Dollars, maximum 1.2113, minimum 1.1755. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, April, 13: exchange rate 1.1982 Dollars, maximum 1.2162, minimum 1.1802. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, April, 14: exchange rate 1.1970 Dollars, maximum 1.2150, minimum 1.1790.

 

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, April, 15: exchange rate 1.2020 Dollars, maximum 1.2200, minimum 1.1840. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, April, 16: exchange rate 1.2029 Dollars, maximum 1.2209, minimum 1.1849. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, April, 19: exchange rate 1.1982 Dollars, maximum 1.2162, minimum 1.1802. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, April, 20: exchange rate 1.1956 Dollars, maximum 1.2135, minimum 1.1777. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, April, 21: exchange rate 1.1975 Dollars, maximum 1.2155, minimum 1.1795.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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