EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short on the EURUSD at or above 1.21582, setting a stop loss at 1.22604, and set a Long position at or below 1.20503, setting a stop loss at 1.19974.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.2076 high, set this past Monday, and 1.1986 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. Hence, we could have Bought the currency pair this past Monday at 1.2014, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.2074, for 0.5% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.2001, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.2059, for 0.48% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.988, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.2023, for 0.29%  and today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.1995, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.2066, for an extra 0.32% profit.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is firmly higher this Thursday, trading in the 1.2050 region. The greenback is down across the board as cooling expectations of a rate move in the US affected the demand for the American currency. Also, the Bank of England announced its decision on monetary policy, leaving rates unchanged but making a twist to its bond-buying program, which put further pressure on the greenback.

Macroeconomic data coming from Europe was quite encouraging, as Germany Factory Orders soared 27.8% MoM in March, while EU Retail Sales surged 2.7% in the same month, both beating the market’s expectations. US figures were also upbeat. Challenger Job Cuts decreased to 22.913K in April, while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 30 resulted in 498K, better than the 540K expected. Q1 Nonfarm Productivity increased 5.4%, while Unit Labor Cost in the same period declined by 0.3%.

 Technical Analysis

EURUSD holds on to daily gains in the 1.2050 region after better-than-anticipated US employment-related data. Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 498K in the week ended April 30.


The EURUSD pair is trading a few pips above the 23.6% retracement of its latest bullish run after repeatedly meeting buyers on approaches to the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.

The near-term picture offers a mildly bullish stance, as, in the above 4-hour chart, technical indicators are entering positive territory. In the same time-frame, the pair is developing above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA losing its bearish strength.

The pair could accelerate its advance once above 1.2075, the weekly high, as Support levels are at 1.2020, 1.1980, and 1.1940.

Resistance levels are set at 1.2075, 1.2110, and 1.2150.

 For next week, our technical indicators are suggesting to go Long on the EURUSD at or below 1.2020, setting a stop loss at 1.1993, and Short it at or above 1.2091, setting a stop loss at 1.21. While the currency pair consolidates on the lower trading channel, one may benefit on day trading it between 120277 and 1.19860.


As of 3:59 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.2059.


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, May, 7: exchange rate 1.2002 Dollars, maximum 1.2182, minimum 1.1822. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, May, 10: exchange rate 1.1945 Dollars, maximum 1.2124, minimum 1.1766. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, May, 11: exchange rate 1.1996 Dollars, maximum 1.2176, minimum 1.1816. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, May, 12: exchange rate 1.1893 Dollars, maximum 1.2071, minimum 1.1715.


In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, May, 13: exchange rate 1.1887 Dollars, maximum 1.2065, minimum 1.1709. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, May, 14: exchange rate 1.1925 Dollars, maximum 1.2104, minimum 1.1746. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, May, 17: exchange rate 1.1930 Dollars, maximum 1.2109, minimum 1.1751. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, May, 18: exchange rate 1.1917 Dollars, maximum 1.2096, minimum 1.1738. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, May, 19: exchange rate 1.1996 Dollars, maximum 1.2176, minimum 1.1816.






Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.


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