Forex Forecast: 10 – 14/02/2020

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/02/2020

How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement


NZD Rates Week in Review

Today, Thursday, the NZDUSD has been trading between 0.6485 and 0.6457. Our last week recommendation suggested buying this currency pair at or below 0.6475. In fact, we could have bought it this Monday or Tuesday at 0.6453 and sell it, yesterday at 0.6503, realizing 0.77% ROI.


For next week and the remaining of the month, we will focus on the EURUSD pair for potential higher percentage trading gain.


Fundamental Overview

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around the 1.1000 level ever since the day started, unable to attract investors. The pair attempted to recover some ground early London, although worse-than-expected German Factory Orders put a halt to the shared currency´s advance. According to the official report, December orders in the country fell by 2.1% MoM and by 8.7% YoY.


US employment-related data failed to impress, as Challenger Job Cuts in January were up to 67.735K, quite a disappointment. However, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 31 decreased to 202K, much better than the 215K anticipated. Nonfarm Productivity in Q4 increased by 1.4%, while the Unit Labor Cost in the same period rose by 1.4%, down from 2.5% in the previous quarter. The only pending event today is a speech from Fed’s Kaplan.


Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD  pair is holding on to its bearish stance in the short-term, despite confined to the 1.1000 area. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators head nowhere although at weekly lows and close to oversold readings, while the pair continues to develop below all of its moving averages. The 20 SMA heads sharply lower now converging with a Fibonacci level at around 1.1035. The pair will likely accelerate its slump on a break below 1.0980, the immediate support. Other support and resistance levels are 1.0980 1.0950, and 1.0910, and 1.1020, 1.1060, and 1.1100, respectively.

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/02/2020

Even though most of the investor community is short at this level, having the EUR/USD broken the strong support level at around 1.10, our technical indicators gives strong suggestion for a bounce on the EUR/USD from this levels, now trading at 1.09837, to 1.10775-1.11.

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/02/2020

For next week, and as of today at  3:27 PM (GMT+0) the EUR/USD 1.0984. At this stage and in the short-term, we believe the EURUSD fair value should be trading at around 1.11 level, hence, we would be long on it at or below 1.0982 and sell it between 1.11 and 1.10775.

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/02/2020

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow

Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 7: exchange rate 1.0959 Dollars, maximum 1.1123, minimum 1.0795. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, February, 10: exchange rate 1.0942 Dollars, maximum 1.1106, minimum 1.0778. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, February, 11: exchange rate 1.0910 Dollars, maximum 1.1074, minimum 1.0746. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, February, 12: exchange rate 1.0972 Dollars, maximum 1.1137, minimum 1.0807.

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/02/2020

In 1 week Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, February, 13: exchange rate 1.0995 Dollars, maximum 1.1160, minimum 1.0830. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, February, 14: exchange rate 1.0983 Dollars, maximum 1.1148, minimum 1.0818. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, February, 17: exchange rate 1.0982 Dollars, maximum 1.1147, minimum 1.0817. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, February, 18: exchange rate 1.0973 Dollars, maximum 1.1138, minimum 1.0808. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, February, 19: exchange rate 1.0946 Dollars, maximum 1.1110, minimum 1.0782.


Again, remember to place stop losses, according to your risk tolerance as unexpected news coming to the market may significantly affect trends and prices. Until the next article, we wish all of you wealthy trading!


Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be