Forex Forecast: 1 – 5 March 2021

 

EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short on the currency pair at or above 1.23, and to go Long at or below 1.1946. This week, EURUSD price range was 1.2181 high, set this past Tuesday, and 1.2109 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. If we kept our trading discipline, there was no trading opportunity for Long or Shorts throughout the week.

 Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair is trading above 1.2200 for the first time since early January, as the risk-related sentiment turned on. The dollar is down,  global equities are up and US government debt yields reach fresh one-year highs. The shared currency woke up after lagging for a couple of weeks, maintaining its bullish momentum despite other dollar rivals eased from daily highs.

On the data front, the day has been quite busy. Germany published the March GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, which improved to -12.9 from -15.5. The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator printed at 93.4 in February from 91.5 in the previous month.

The US has just published January Durable Goods Orders, with the headline reading coming at 3.4%, vs the 1.1% expected. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 17 improved to 730K, while the Q4 Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 4.1% as expected.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading above 1.22 but off the highs. US Durable Goods Orders jumped by 3.4% in January, better than expected, and jobless claims surprised with a fall to 730K. Q4 GDP upgraded to 4.1%, as expected.

As indicated in the above chart, the EURUSD pair trades around 1.2220 ahead of Wall Street’s opening, near a daily high of 1.2237. The near term picture is bullish, as the 4-hour chart shows that the pair accelerated north above all of its moving averages. It is also trading well above the 23.6% retracement of its November/January rally, aiming to complete a full retracement to 1.2349.

 

As seen in the 4-h chart, technical indicators have partially lost their bullish strength, but hold near their daily highs and well into positive levels, keeping the risk skewed to the upside.

Support levels are at 1.2210, 1.2170, and 1.2120, while Resistance levels are at 1.2240, 1.2295, and 1.2350.

 For next week, as illustrated in the following EURUSD chart, our technical indicators are suggesting to close outstanding shorts positions and go Long at or below 1.2158, initiating new Short positions at or above 1.2207.

 

As of 2:54 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.222353.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:  Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, February, 26: exchange rate 1.2187 Dollars, maximum 1.2370, minimum 1.2004. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, March, 1: exchange rate 1.2174 Dollars, maximum 1.2357, minimum 1.1991. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, March, 2: exchange rate 1.2216 Dollars, maximum 1.2399, minimum 1.2033. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, March, 3: exchange rate 1.2244 Dollars, maximum 1.2428, minimum 1.2060.

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, March, 4: exchange rate 1.2298 Dollars, maximum 1.2482, minimum 1.2114. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, March, 5: exchange rate 1.2234 Dollars, maximum 1.2418, minimum 1.2050. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, March, 8: exchange rate 1.2210 Dollars, maximum 1.2393, minimum 1.2027. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, March, 9: exchange rate 1.2212 Dollars, maximum 1.2395, minimum 1.2029. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, March, 10: exchange rate 1.2206 Dollars, maximum 1.2389, minimum 1.2023.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.

 

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