Forex Forecast: 10 – 14/08/2020

Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/08/2020

How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement


EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to short the EURUSD at 1.18 for a covering target price of 1.17.  This past Tuesday, we could have shorted the EURUSD at 1.1807 and cover it at 1.1720, on an intraday trading, realizing a 0.74% ROI. Wednesday, we could have short it at 1.1906, covering it on an intraday trading at 1.1793, locking in an extra 0.95% profit.


Fundamental Overview

The EURUSD pair surged to 1.1915, a fresh multi-month high, only to retreat to the current 1.1850 area. The American currency remains the weakest across the FX board, despite the latest modest recovery. Investors turned cautious ahead of US employment data, and the upcoming Nonfarm Payroll report to be out on Friday.


US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 31 surprised to the upside, as those claiming for unemployment benefits accounted for 1.18 million, better than the previous 1.43M and also beating the market’s expectation. Challenger Job Cuts, however, were up to 262.649K in July, from 170.219K in the previous month.


Meanwhile, Wall Street is set to open lower, weighed by the sour tone of its overseas counterparts, while US Treasury yields flirt with their recent lows, somehow suggesting a dismal market mood.


Technical Analysis

EURUSD claws back towards 1.1900 as the dollar is once again under strong selling pressure, with EURUSD approaching its recent multi-month highs. US employment data failed to impress, focus on Nonfarm Payroll report.


Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/08/2020


From a technical point of view, the EURUSD pair retains its bullish stance. The above 4-hour chart shows that it keeps developing above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA providing dynamic support around 1.1800.


Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, with uneven bullish strength. As long as the pair remains above the 1.1800 mark, the risk of a bearish movement will remain well limited.


Support levels are at 1.1835, 1.1800, and 1.1760, while Resistance levels are at  1.1910, 1.1950, and 1.1990.


For next week and as shown in the following EURUSD chart, we have an advanced harmonic pattern and/or Bearish Bat.


Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/08/2020


Our technical analysis suggests shorting the currency pair at 1.19, with a stop loss of 1.22.

As of 5:58 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.18785.


Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/08/2020


EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 7: exchange rate 1.1976 Dollars, maximum 1.2156, minimum 1.1796. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 10: exchange rate 1.2008 Dollars, maximum 1.2188, minimum 1.1828. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 11: exchange rate 1.1961 Dollars, maximum 1.2140, minimum 1.1782. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 12: exchange rate 1.1951 Dollars, maximum 1.2130, minimum 1.1772.


Forex Forecast: 10 - 14/08/2020


In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 13: exchange rate 1.1978 Dollars, maximum 1.2158, minimum 1.1798. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 14: exchange rate 1.2023 Dollars, maximum 1.2203, minimum 1.1843. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 17: exchange rate 1.2008 Dollars, maximum 1.2188, minimum 1.1828. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 18: exchange rate 1.2125 Dollars, maximum 1.2307, minimum 1.1943. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.2141 Dollars, maximum 1.2323, minimum 1.1959.



Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.