Weekly Forex Forecast: 25 – 29/11/2019
How to use the basic technical analysis concepts we have shared with you to predict the next week’s currency pair price movement
EUR Rates Week in Review
Last week, we believe we made a perfect call long on the EURUSD, when our technical analysis indicated to double it down at 1.10 price level as we expected a push on the upside from 1.10 to 1.10812. Indeed, we got two opportunities to sell the pair; first this Tuesday at 1.10816 and again yesterday, Wednesday, when the EURUSD reach the intraday high of 1.10972. Further, we stated that we would then take a short position at 1.10836 to close the position between 1.09155 and 1.09400. As I am writing the article the EURUSD at 5:20 PM (GMT+0) last trade was at 1.10618. So, it seems, we are on the right trend, again!
So, last week, the pair dropped to the vicinity of mid-1.1000s but managed to recover the early lost ground amid some renewed USD selling bias. The buck remained on the defensive after the Fed released minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting held on October 29-30. The minutes revealed that most members judged that the monetary easing was enough to support growth, albeit they continued to see downside risks to the economic outlook. Most policymakers said the rate cut was appropriate due to global weakness. The minutes turned out to be a non-event and did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the major.
The pair finally ended with modest losses, snapping four consecutive days of winning streak, and held steady through the Asian session on Thursday. The market focus now shifts to the minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) October policy meeting, which might influence the shared currency and produce some short-term trading opportunities. The key focus, however, will remain on Friday’s prelim Euro-zone PMI prints, which coupled with the ECB President Christine Lagarde’s scheduled speech might provide a fresh directional impetus.
This week the EUR/USD is rising toward 1.11, trading at the highest since November 5. Hopes that a US-Sino trade deal may be reached are improving the market mood and weighing on the safe-haven dollar.
From a technical perspective, nothing has changed much the pair and hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 100-day SMA barrier before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. The mentioned hurdle is closely followed by 23.6% Fibonacci level of the 1.0879-1.1180 move up, around the 1.1100-10 region, above which the pair seems all set to aim towards testing the 1.1170-80 supply zone (double-top resistance) en-route the 1.1200 round figure mark.
On the flip side, any meaningful pullback might continue to find some support near the 1.1045 region (50-day SMA) ahead of 50% Fibo. level around the 1.1030 area, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Failure to defend the said support levels might turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards challenging the key 1.10 psychological mark. Some follow-through weakness below the 1.1000-1.0990 region (61.8% Fibo.) is likely to accelerate the fall further towards the 1.0955-50 region before the pair eventually drops to the 1.0900 round-figure mark.
Hence and for next week, we expect a pullback on the EURUSD to 1.09410 price level, so, our technical analysis indicators suggest to keep our short position strategy initiated and confirmed this Tuesday at 1.10816 and again yesterday, Wednesday at 1.10972 and waiting to close the short position between 1.09155 and 1.09400. A perfect target price to close the position would be at 1.0940 as the above technical chart indicates.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow, and next week.
Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, November, 22: exchange rate 1.1073 Dollars, maximum 1.1239, minimum 1.0907. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, November, 25: exchange rate 1.1081 Dollars, maximum 1.1247, minimum 1.0915. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, November, 26: exchange rate 1.1100 Dollars, maximum 1.1267, minimum 1.0934. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, November, 27: exchange rate 1.1134 Dollars, maximum 1.1301, minimum 1.0967.
In 1 week
Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, November, 28: exchange rate 1.1146 Dollars, maximum 1.1313, minimum 1.0979. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, November, 29: exchange rate 1.1144 Dollars, maximum 1.1311, minimum 1.0977. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, December, 2: exchange rate 1.1122 Dollars, maximum 1.1289, minimum 1.0955. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, December, 3: exchange rate 1.1133 Dollars, maximum 1.1300, minimum 1.0966. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, December, 4: exchange rate 1.1106 Dollars, maximum 1.1273, minimum 1.0939.
Again, remember to place stop losses, according to your risk tolerance as unexpected news coming to the market may significantly affect trends and prices. Until the next article, wealthy trading.
Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. Further, This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Tony Ferreira nor KeySoft. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of the future performance of the EUR/USD.